last year--how much nearer is she to the end? One can but answer such
questions in the most fragmentary and tentative way, relying for the
most part on the opinions and information of those who know, those who
are in the van of action, at home and abroad, but also on one's own
personal impressions of an incomparable scene. And every day, almost, at
this breathless moment, the answer of yesterday may become obsolete.

I left our Headquarters in France, for instance, some days before the
news of the Russian revolution reached London, and while the Somme
retirement was still in its earlier stages. Immediately afterwards the
events of one short week transformed the whole political aspect of
Europe, and may well prove to have changed the face of the war--although
as to that, let there be no dogmatising yet! But before the pace becomes
faster still, and before the unfolding of those great and perhaps final
events we may now dimly foresee, let me try and seize the impressions of
some memorable weeks and bring them to bear--so far as the war is
concerned--on those questions which, in the present state of affairs,
must interest you in America scarcely less than they interest us here.
Where, in fact, do we stand?

Any kind of answer must begin with the Navy. For, in the case of Great
Britain, and indeed scarcely less in the case of the Allies, that is the
foundation of everything. To yourself the facts will all be
familiar--but for the benefit of those innumerable friends of the Allies
in Europe and America whom I would fain reach with the help of your
great name, I will run through a few of the recent--the ground--facts of
the past year, as I myself ran through them a few days ago, before, with
an Admiralty permit, I went down to one of the most interesting naval
bases on our coast and found myself amid a group of men engaged night
and day in grappling with the submarine menace which threatens not only