but not materially different. Both writers agree that we are in presence
of Germany's last and greatest effort, that she has no more behind, and
that if the Allies go on as they have begun--and now with the help of
America--this summer should witness the fulfilment at least of that
forecast which I reported to you in my earlier letters as so general
among the chiefs of our Army in France--_i.e._ "this year will see the
war _decided_, but may not see it ended." Since I came home, indeed,
more optimistic prophecies have reached me from France. For some weeks
after the American declaration of war, "We shall be home by Christmas!"
was the common cry--and amongst some of the best-informed.

But the Russian situation has no doubt: reacted to some extent on these
April hopes. And it is clear that, during April and early May, under the
stimulus of the submarine successes, German spirits have temporarily
revived. Never have the Junkers been more truculent, never have the
Pan-Germans talked wilder nonsense about "annexation" and "indemnities."
Until quite recently at any rate, the whole German nation--except no
doubt a cautious and intelligent few at the real sources of
information--believed that the submarine campaign would soon "bring
England to her knees." They were so confident, that they ran the last
great risk--they brought America into the War!

How does it look now? The situation is still critical and dangerous. But
I recall the half-smiling prophecy of my naval host, in the middle of
March, as we stood together on the deck of his ship, looking over his
curtseying and newly-hatched flock of destroyers gathered round him in
harbour. Was it not, perhaps, as near the mark as that of our airmen
hosts on March 1st has proved itself to be? "Have patience and you'll
see great things! The situation is serious, but quite healthy." Two
months, and a little more, since the words were spoken:--and week by