Every move by one Power is taken to be a menace to another, and is
countered by a similar move, which in turn produces a reply. And it is
not easy to say "Who began it?" since the rivalry goes so far back into
the past. What, for instance, is the real truth about the German, French,
and Russian military laws of 1913? Were any or all of them aggressive? Or
were they all defensive? I do not believe it is possible to answer that
question. Looking back from the point of view of 1914, it is natural to
suppose that Germany was already intending war. But that did not seem
evident at the time to a neutral observer, nor even, it would seem, to
the British Foreign Office. Thus the Count de Lalaing, Belgian Minister
in London, writes as follows on February 24, 1913:--

The English Press naturally wants to throw upon Germany the
responsibility for the new tension which results from its proposals,
and which may bring to Europe fresh occasions of unrest. Many journals
consider that the French Government, in declaring itself ready to impose
three years' service, and in nominating M. Delcassé to St. Petersburg,
has adopted the only attitude worthy of the great Republic in presence
of a German provocation. At the Foreign Office I found a more just and
calm appreciation of the position. They see in the reinforcement of
the German armies less a provocation than the admission of a military
situation weakened by events and which it is necessary to strengthen.
The Government of Berlin sees itself obliged to recognize that it cannot
count, as before, on the support of all the forces of its Austrian ally,
since the appearance in South-east Europe of a new Power, that of the
Balkan allies, established on the very flank of the Dual Empire. Far
from being able to count, in case of need, on the full support of the
Government of Vienna, it is probable that Germany will have to support
Vienna herself. In the case of a European war she would have to make