CHAPTER XXII.--_That in matters of moment Men often judge amiss._

How falsely men often judge of things, they who are present at their
deliberations have constant occasion to know. For in many matters,
unless these deliberations be guided by men of great parts, the
conclusions come to are certain to be wrong. And because in corrupt
republics, and especially in quiet times, either through jealousy or
from other like causes, men of great ability are often obliged to stand
aloof, it follows that measures not good in themselves are by a common
error judged to be good, or are promoted by those who seek public favour
rather than the public advantage. Mistakes of this sort are found out
afterwards in seasons of adversity, when recourse must be had to those
persons who in peaceful times had been, as it were, forgotten, as shall
hereafter in its proper place be more fully explained. Cases, moreover,
arise in which those who have little experience of affairs are sure to
be misled, from the matters with which they have to deal being attended
by many deceptive appearances such as lead men to believe whatsoever
they are minded to believe.

These remarks I make with reference to the false hopes which the Latins,
after being defeated by the Romans, were led to form on the persuasion
of their prætor Numitius, and also with reference to what was believed
by many a few years ago, when Francis, king of France, came to recover
Milan from the Swiss. For Francis of Angoulême, succeeding on the death
of Louis XII. to the throne of France, and desiring to recover for that
realm the Duchy of Milan, on which, some years before, the Swiss had
seized at the instance of Pope Julius, sought for allies in Italy to