Arbitration Courts would definitely end in an alliance against Germany.
There has, at any rate, been a great and widespread agitation against us
in the United States. The Americans of German and Irish stock resolutely
opposed it, and it is reasonable to assume that the anti-German movement
in the United States was a passing phase, with no real foundation in the
nature of things. In the field of commerce there is, no doubt, keen
competition between the two countries, especially in South America;
there is, however, no reason to assume that this will lead to political
complications.

Japan has, for the time being, a direct political interest for us only
in her influence on the affairs of Russia, America, England, and China.
In the Far East, since Japan has formed an alliance with England, and
seems recently to have effected an arrangement with Russia, we have to
count more on Japanese hostility than Japanese friendship. Her attitude
to China may prove exceptionally important to our colonial possessions
in East Asia. If the two nations joined hands--a hardly probable
eventuality at present--it would become difficult for us to maintain an
independent position between them. The political rivalry between
the two nations of yellow race must therefore be kept alive. If they are
antagonistic, they will both probably look for help against each other
in their relations with Europe, and thus enable the European Powers to
retain their possessions in Asia.

While the aspiring Great Powers of the Far East cannot at present
directly influence our policy, Turkey--the predominant Power of the Near
East--is of paramount importance to us. She is our natural ally; it is
emphatically our interest to keep in close touch with her. The wisest
course would have been to have made her earlier a member of the Triple
Alliance, and so to have prevented the Turco-Italian War, which