thought that there would still remain a United States of America
"strong, powerful and free; all the stronger for the loss of the Black
South[81]." In short from all quarters the public press, whatever its
sympathy, united in decrying war as a useless effort doomed to failure
if undertaken in the hope of restoring the Union. Such public opinion,
however, was not necessarily governmental opinion. The latter was indeed
more slow to make up its mind and more considerate in expressing itself.
When it became clear that in all probability the North would fight,
there was still no conception, any more than in the United States
itself, of the duration and intensity of the conflict. Indeed, Russell
yet hoped, as late as the end of January, that no protracted war would
occur. Nevertheless he was compelled to face the situation in its
relation to British commerce.

On February 16, Russell addressed Lyons on that aspect of possible war
which would at once call for a determination of British policy. "Above
all things," he wrote, "endeavour to prevent a blockade of the Southern
coast. It would produce misery, discord, and enmity incalculable[82]."
Within a week Forster, a thorough friend of the North throughout the
whole war, was interrogating the Ministry in the House of Commons in
regard to the situation at Charleston, and expressing the hope that
England would not in any way attempt to interfere[83]. This was the
first reference in Parliament, its sittings but just renewed after the
long vacation, to the American conflict, but British commercial
interests were being forced to a keener attention, and already men in
many circles were asking themselves what should be the proper
governmental attitude; how soon this new Southern Confederacy could
justly claim European recognition; how far and how fast European
governments ought to go in acknowledging such a claim; what ought to be
the proper policy and position of a neutral power; whether, indeed, a