it we cannot tell whether it leads north or south or due west. But
if from any mountain-top we can gain a clear bird's-eye view of its
whole course, we easily distinguish the main road, its turns become
quite insignificant, we see that it leads as directly as any
engineering skill could locate it through the mountains to the
fertile plains and rich harvests beyond.

Now our knowledge of the history of man covers so brief a period
that we can scarcely more than hazard a guess as to the trend of
human progress. Many of the most promising social movements are like
by-roads which, at first less steep and difficult, end sooner or
later against impassable obstacles. And even if there be a main line
of march, advance seems to alternate with retreat, progress with
retrogression. To illustrate further, the great waves rush onward
only to fall back again, and we can hardly tell whether the tide is
flowing or ebbing.

Yet already certain tendencies appear fairly clear. Governments tend
to become democratic, if we define democracy as "any form of
government in which the will of the people finds sovereign
expression." The tendency of society seems to be toward furnishing
all its members equality of opportunity to make the most of their
natural endowments. But if we are convinced that these statements
express even vaguely the tendency of human development in all its
past history, we are confident that these tendencies will continue
in the future for a period somewhat proportional to their time of
growth in the past. If we are wise, we try to make our own lives and
actions, and those of our fellows, conform to and advance them.
Otherwise our lives will be thrown away.