How, then, should men deal with the alternate cycles of flourishing and
declining trade? There is a celebrated dictum, "Sell on arising market,
buy on a falling one."

That man will be safest who will reject this time-worn theory, or will
only accept it with profound modifications. The advice I tender on this
subject is as applicable to Throgmorton Street as it is good for Mincing
Lane. The danger of the dictum is that it commits the believer to rowing
for ever against the tide.

Let us take the case of buying on a falling market. That a man should
abstain from all buying transactions while the market is falling is an
absurd proposition. But it is none the less true in the main that such a
course is a mistaken one. The machinery of his industry must, of course,
be kept in motion, or it will rust and cease to be able to move in
better times. But it is unwise to embark on new enterprises and
commitments when commerce, finance, and industry are all stagnant. And
very frequently buying on a falling market means just this.

It is like sowing in the depths of winter seeds which would mature just
as well if they were sown in March. No; it is when the tide has
definitely turned that new enterprises should be undertaken. The iron
frost is then broken, and the sower may go out to scatter in the
spring-time seeds which will bring in their harvest. To buy before the
turn is to incur the cost of carrying stocks for many unnecessary
months.

The converse of the proposition is to sell on a rising market.
Certainly. Sell on a rising market, but do not stop selling because the
market ceases to rise. A great part of the art of business is the