certainly be to export to Germany, as hitherto, a considerable part of
the output of the mines.

On the other hand, France, having recovered the deposits of Lorraine,
may be expected to aim at replacing as far as possible the industries,
which Germany had based on them, by industries situated within her own
frontiers. Much time must elapse before the plant and the skilled labor
could be developed within France, and even so she could hardly deal with
the ore unless she could rely on receiving the coal from Germany. The
uncertainty, too, as to the ultimate fate of the Saar will be disturbing
to the calculations of capitalists who contemplate the establishment of
new industries in France.

In fact, here, as elsewhere, political considerations cut disastrously
across economic. In a régime of Free Trade and free economic intercourse
it would be of little consequence that iron lay on one side of a
political frontier, and labor, coal, and blast furnaces on the other.
But as it is, men have devised ways to impoverish themselves and one
another; and prefer collective animosities to individual happiness. It
seems certain, calculating on the present passions and impulses of
European capitalistic society, that the effective iron output of Europe
will be diminished by a new political frontier (which sentiment and
historic justice require), because nationalism and private interest are
thus allowed to impose a new economic frontier along the same lines.
These latter considerations are allowed, in the present governance of
Europe, to prevail over the intense need of the Continent for the most
sustained and efficient production to repair the destructions of war,
and to satisfy the insistence of labor for a larger reward.[54]

The same influences are likely to be seen, though on a lesser scale, in