[5] See _The War of Steel and Gold_, by H.N. Brailsford (Bell)--opening
chapter on "The Balance of Power."


BALANCE OR CONCERT?

I do not say that the course of events could possibly have been altered.
When once we became part of the continental system, it was necessary for
us to choose between friends and enemies. I only say that if diplomacy
calls itself an agency for preventing war, it cannot be said to be
altogether successful. Its famous doctrine of a Balance of Power is in
reality a mere phrase. If one combination be represented as X and the
other as Y, and X increases itself up to X^2, it becomes necessary that Y
should similarly increase itself to Y^2, a process which, clearly, does
not make for peace. I should imagine that the best of diplomatists are
quite aware of this. Indeed, there seems reason to suppose that Sir Edward
Grey, owing to definite experience in the last two years, not only
discovered the uselessness of the principle of a Balance of Power, but did
his best to substitute something entirely different--the Concert of
Europe. All the negotiations he conducted during and after the two Balkan
wars, his constant effort to summon London Conferences and other things,
were intended to create a Concert of European Powers, discussing amongst
themselves the best measures to secure the peace of the world. Alas! the
whole of the fabric was destroyed, the fair prospects hopelessly clouded
over, by the intemperate ambition of the Kaiser, who, just because he
believed that the Balance of Power was favourable to himself, that Russia
was unready, that France was involved in serious domestic trouble, that
England was on the brink of civil war, set fire to the magazine and
engineered the present colossal explosion.