The difficulties in the way of any immediate settlement now are so
obvious that one might wonder why any one should be in favour of the
attempt. The explanation lies in that popular illusion, with which it
now pleases the world to deceive itself--the International Loan. It is
thought that if Germany's liability can now be settled once and for all,
the "bankers" will then lend her a huge sum of money by which she can
anticipate her liabilities and satisfy the requirements of France.

In my opinion the International Loan on a great scale is just as big an
illusion as Reparations on a great scale. It will not happen. It cannot
happen. And it would make a most disastrous disturbance if it did
happen. The idea that the rest of the world is going to lend to
Germany, for her to hand over to France, about 100 per cent. of their
liquid savings--for that is what it amounts to--is utterly preposterous.
And the sooner we get that into our heads the better. I am not quite
clear for what sort of an amount the public imagine that the loan would
be, but I think the sums generally mentioned vary from £250,000,000 up
to £500,000,000. The idea that any Government in the world, or all of
the Governments in the world in combination, let alone bankrupt Germany,
could at the present time raise this amount of new money (that is to
say, for other purposes than the funding or redemption of existing
obligations) from investors in the world's Stock Exchanges is
ridiculous.

The highest figure which I have heard mentioned by a reliable authority
is £100,000,000. Personally, I think even this much too high. It could
only be realised if subscriptions from special quarters, as, for
example, German hoards abroad, and German-Americans, were to provide the
greater part of it, which would only be the case if it were part of a