determine its future prosperity or ruin, it may be well to note
what has been the trend of the nations hitherto, and whether any
forces exist that may reasonably be expected to change that trend.
We may then be able to induce from facts the law which that trend
obeys, and make a reasonable deduction as to whether or not the
world is moving toward peace. If we do this we shall follow the
inductive method of modern science, and avoid the error (with its
perilous results) of first assuming the law and then deducing
conclusions from it.

Men have always been divided into organizations, the first organization
being the family. As time went on families were formed into tribes,
for self-protection. The underlying cause for the organization was
always a desire for strength; sometimes for defense, sometimes
for offense, usually for both.

At times tribes joined in alliance with other tribes to attain a
common end, the alliance being brought about by peaceful agreement,
and usually ceasing after the end had been attained, or missed, or
when tribal jealousies forbade further common effort. Sometimes
tribes joined to form one larger tribe; the union being either
forced on a weaker by a stronger tribe, or caused by a desire to
secure a strength greater and more lasting than mere alliance can
insure.

In the same way, and apparently according to similar laws, sovereign
states or nations were formed from tribes; and in later years, by
the union of separate states. The states or nations have become
larger and larger as time has gone on; greater numbers, not only
of people but of peoples, living in the same general localities