Ten years, however, is not really far enough ahead to look, for
the simple reason that, while we could get a great many ships ready
in ten years, we could not get the entire navy ready as will be
explained later. If, for instance, some change in policies or in
interests should make war with Great Britain probable within ten
years, we could not possibly build a navy that could prevent our
being beaten, and blockaded, and forced to pay an enormous indemnity.

Is there _no_ probability of this? Perhaps there is no great
probability; but there certainly is a possibility. In fact, it
might be a very wise act for Great Britain, seeing us gradually
surpassing her, to go to war with us before it is too late, and
crush us. It has often been said that Great Britain could not afford
to go to war with us, because so many of her commercial interests
would suffer. Of course, they would suffer for a while; but so do
the commercial interests of competing railroads when they begin
to cut rates. Cutting rates is war--commercial war: but it is often
carried on, nevertheless, and at tremendous cost.

Just now, Great Britain does not wish to crush us; but it is certain
that she can. It is certain that the richest country in the world
lies defenseless against the most powerful; and that we could not
alter this condition in ten years, even if we started to build
an adequate navy now.

Yet even if the degree of probability of war with Great Britain,
within say ten years, seems so small that we need not consider her,
are there no other great Powers with whom the degree of probability
of war is great enough to make it wise for us to consider them?