WILL THE IMPORTANCE OF NAVAL POWER INCREASE OR DECREASE?

It is clear that the importance to a country of a navy varies with
two things--the value of that country's foreign trade and the
probability of war.

It is also clear that, other things being equal, the probability
of a country becoming involved in war varies as the value of her
foreign trade; because the causes of friction and the money at
stake vary in that proportion.

Therefore, _the importance to a country of her navy varies as the
square of the value of her foreign trade_.

In order to answer the question, therefore, we must first consider
whether foreign trade--sea trade--is going to increase or decrease.

As to the United States alone, the value of our exports is about
ten times what it was fifty years ago, and it promises to increase.
But the United States is only one country, and perhaps her increase
in foreign trade has been due to conditions past or passing. So
what is the outlook for the future, both for the United States
and other countries? Will other countries seek foreign trade?

Yes. The recent commercial progress of Germany, Argentina, and
Japan, shows the growing recognition by civilized and enterprising
countries of the benefits of foreign trade, and of the facilities
for attaining it which are now given by the advent of large, swift,