experience shows that the power which controls the mouth is sooner or
later forced to climb to its source, especially when its up-stream
neighbours are hostile and not civilised. And what power of
Government will be left to Turkey after the war? It looks as if she
will be as bankrupt, both financially and politically, as Persia; and
I see no real hope of avoiding a partition à la Persia into British
and Russian spheres of interest. In that case it seems to me the
British sphere should go to the Shatt-al-Hai, and the Russian begin
where the plain ends, or at any rate north of Mosul. Are you at
liberty to tell me whether there is already an understanding with
Russia about this country, and if so how far it goes?

As for the climate, I don't think it is any worse than the plains of
India. When it is properly drained the fever will be much less: and
under peace conditions the water can be properly purified and the heat
dealt with. The obvious port is Basra; it is said that the bar outside
Fao could easily be dredged to 26ft. The only other really good
harbour is Koweit, I gather: but our game is to support the
independence of K.: make it the railway terminus, but by using Basra
you make your rail-freight as low as possible and have your commercial
port where you can directly control matters.

I wish they would get a move on in the Dardanelles. It seems to me
Germany is running a fearful risk by committing herself so deeply into
the interior of Russia at this time of year. The only explanation I
can find is that at each rush she has been much nearer to cutting off
a Russian army than has transpired and so is tempted on: nearer
perhaps than the Russians ever intended, which may be the reason of
the Grand Duke's removal to the Caucasus.