For purposes of assessing the consequences of a major California
earthquake, scenarios for seven large earthquakes were developed. The
scenarios depict expectable earthquakes that could severely impact on
the major population centers of California. In each case they are
representative of only one possible magnitude of earthquake that could
occur on the indicated fault system. On each fault system there is a
greater probability of one or more damaging earthquakes of somewhat
smaller magnitude than the postulated event. The postulated
earthquakes are listed in the following table.


TABLE 1

MAJOR CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKES

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Current
Annual Likelihood
Probability of
of Occurrence
Richter Occurrence in Next
Region Fault System Magnitude[1] (Percent) 20-30 Years
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Los Angeles- Southern
San Bernardino San Andreas 8.3 2-5 High

San Francisco Northern
Bay Area San Andreas 8.3 1 Moderate