D. CONSIDERATIONS FOR IMPROVING RESPONSE CAPABILITY

Earthquake prediction has not been incorporated into existing plans.
Response to predictions in the current environment, if given, would be
_ad hoc_. The State of California has only a rudimentary plan and the
Federal Government none. The City of Los Angeles has examined the
problem extensively, but only considers its own jurisdiction and has
not produced an actionable plan. Current planning for the recovery
period is incomplete, uncoordinated, and not functional. State and
local governments have done little to plan for the recovery period
when, following the emergency lifesaving phase, efforts and resources
are concentrated on restoring the functioning of the community. They
presume that the Federal Government will "step in" after a
presidential declaration. The Federal Government has an untested draft
plan for the San Francisco area that is not fully coordinated with the
State plans. Current Federal plans are geared to the provision of
assistance on the order of a few hundred million dollars. Thus, there
is little confidence that they would function under the requirements
for tens-of-billions-of-dollars and concomitant service demands.

Both Federal and State agencies need to commit the financial resources
and assignment of personnel to maintain and enhance earthquake plans
and preparedness. Earthquake preparedness, although responding to high
damage expectation, is still based upon a relatively low probability
occurrence. When it is in competition with pressing social needs for a
portion of limited resources, social needs tend to prevail at all
levels of government. Without a clear commitment, future development
of earthquake preparedness, as in the past, is problematic and its
implementation is in considerable doubt. The Federal earthquake
preparedness effort needs to focus on a high state of readiness.