When we met in Oakland on July 4 I raised the issue of seismic
hazards. I was concerned then with the steady increase in seismic
activity in California since 1978. Sharing my concern, you directed
that the National Security Council join with my staff and certain
local experts to conduct a quick study on the potential for a great
earthquake in California.

As you know, significant theoretical and public policy research had
already been completed by our Seismic Safety Commission, State
Geologist, Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council and the Office of
Emergency Services. Together with the U.S. Geological Survey and the
Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), they had clearly been
keeping abreast of the state of the art of earthquake prediction.
Indeed, combined state and federal efforts, founded on major
theoretical advances in American, Russian and Chinese seismic and
geological theory since the early 1970s, had shifted the language of
earthquake prediction in California from "if" to "when"!

In light of my personal interest in this subject, I have signed into
law Assemblyman Frank Vicencia's AB 2202, a jointly funded
state-federal project to design a comprehensive earthquake
prediction-response plan. It is the state's intention to prepare a
plan for the greater Los Angeles area as quickly as feasible. In my
view, such a fullscale prediction-response program had become possible
only after the research findings of both physical and policy
scientists during the past five years. It is my conviction that such a
plan is now timely--neither too early nor too late.

In this context, your recognition of this issue in our conversation of
September 22 in Los Angeles was a welcome personal reinforcement of