followed by a shortage, and that the man who has a second crop at that
time can obtain a price which will reimburse his carrying charges
be they high or low. The cost of overcoming present obstacles will
be shifted to the consumer. The possibility of such an investment
is determined largely by ability to maintain a protective system
with economy and to bear the expense of this and of heavy taxation
during the period of no return.

In short, the weakness of the ordinary financial calculation upon
existing conditions is that it attempts to estimate future stumpage
values without knowledge of the true factor which will determine
them. This factor is not the probable rise of existing stumpage
while it continues to exist, but is the extent of the new-grown
supply which will follow it provided existing conditions remain
unchanged. It is inconsistent to figure the cost upon almost prohibitive
present conditions without also recognizing that such conditions, if
continued, will completely change the influences which now determine
the market.

WHO CAN AFFORD TO REFOREST NOW

On the other hand, timber owners have by no means equal opportunity
to take advantage of this fact. The productive capacity of their
land varies, their taxes vary, the extent and location of their
holdings affects the expense of protection against fire, and they
have not the same facilities for financing a long term investment.
It is the balance of these factors that determine their opportunity.
Assuming rate of timber growth to be equal, present fire and tax
conditions classify them in relative advantage about as follows: