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The Hound of the Baskervilles by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
page 47 of 242 (19%)
or it may point to agitation and hurry upon the part of the
cutter. On the whole I incline to the latter view, since the
matter was evidently important, and it is unlikely that the
composer of such a letter would be careless. If he were in a
hurry it opens up the interesting question why he should be in
a hurry, since any letter posted up to early morning would reach
Sir Henry before he would leave his hotel. Did the composer fear
an interruption--and from whom?"

"We are coming now rather into the region of guesswork," said
Dr. Mortimer.

"Say, rather, into the region where we balance probabilities and
choose the most likely. It is the scientific use of the imagination,
but we have always some material basis on which to start our
speculation. Now, you would call it a guess, no doubt, but I am
almost certain that this address has been written in a hotel."

"How in the world can you say that?"

"If you examine it carefully you will see that both the pen and
the ink have given the writer trouble. The pen has spluttered
twice in a single word and has run dry three times in a short
address, showing that there was very little ink in the bottle.
Now, a private pen or ink-bottle is seldom allowed to be in such
a state, and the combination of the two must be quite rare. But
you know the hotel ink and the hotel pen, where it is rare to get
anything else. Yes, I have very little hesitation in saying that
could we examine the waste-paper baskets of the hotels around
Charing Cross until we found the remains of the mutilated Times
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