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An Essay Upon Projects by Daniel Defoe
page 103 of 185 (55%)
the taking the town, and offer great odds it shall not be taken by
such a day. Perhaps this goes on a week, and then the scale turns;
and though they seem to hold the same opinion still, yet underhand
the office-keeper has orders to take all the odds which by their
example was before given against the taking the town; and so all
their first-given odds are easily secured, and yet the people
brought into a vein of betting against the siege of the town too.
Then they order all the odds to be taken as long as they will run,
while they themselves openly give odds, and sign polities, and
oftentimes take their own money, till they have received perhaps
double what they at first laid. Then they turn the scale at once,
and cry down the town, and lay that it shall be taken, till the
length of the first odds is fully run; and by this manage, if the
town be taken they win perhaps two or three thousand pounds, and if
it be not taken, they are no losers neither.

It is visible by experience, not one town in ten is besieged but it
is taken. The art of war is so improved, and our generals are so
wary, that an army seldom attempts a siege, but when they are almost
sure to go on with it; and no town can hold out if a relief cannot
be had from abroad.

Now, if I can by first laying 500 pounds to 200 pounds with A, that
the town shall not be taken, wheedle in B to lay me 5,000 pounds to
2,000 pounds of the same; and after that, by bringing down the vogue
of the siege, reduce the wagers to even-hand, and lay 2,000 pounds
with C that the town shall not be taken; by this method, it is plain
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If the town be not taken, I win 2,200 pounds and lose 2,000 pounds.
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