The first year no claim is allowed; so the bank has in stock
completely 22,500 pounds. From thence we are to consider the number
of claims.

Sir William Petty, in his "Political Arithmetic," supposes not above
one in forty to die per annum out of the whole number of people; and
I can by no means allow that the circumstances of our claims will be
as frequent as death, for these reasons:

1. Our subscriptions respect all persons grown and in the prime of
their age; past the first, and providing against the last, part of
danger (Sir William's account including children and old people,
which always make up one-third of the bills of mortality).

2. Our claims will fall thin at first for several years; and let
but the money increase for ten years, as it does in the account for
three years, it would be almost sufficient to maintain the whole
number.

3. Allow that casualty and poverty are our debtor side; health,
prosperity, and death are the creditor side of the account; and in
all probable accounts those three articles will carry off three
fourth-parts of the number, as follows: If one in forty shall die
annually (as no doubt they shall, and more), that is 2,500 a year,
which in twenty years is 50,000 of the number; I hope I may be
allowed one-third to be out of condition to claim, apparently living
without the help of charity, and one third in health and body, and
able to work; which, put together, make 83,332; so it leaves 16,668
to make claims of charity and pensions in the first twenty years,