Baltic nations of raising the tax on their exported corn in
proportion to the demand for it, there is every reason to believe,
that the fluctuations of price would be much greater. Such would, at
least, be my conclusion from theory; and, I think, it has been
confirmed by the experience of the last hundred years. During this
time, the period of our greatest importations, and of our greatest
dependence upon foreign corn, was from 1792 to 1805 inclusive; and
certainly in no fourteen years of the whole hundred were the
fluctuations of price so great. In 1792 the price was 42s. a
quarter; in 1796, 77s.; in 1801, 118s. a quarter; and, in 1803, 56s.
Between the year 1792 and 1801 the rise was almost a triple, and in
the short period from 1798 to 1803, it rose from 50s. to 118s. and
fell again to 56s.(13*)

I would not insist upon this existence as absolutely conclusive, on
account of the mixture of accident in all such appeals to facts; but
it certainly tends to confirm the probability of those great
fluctuations which, according to all general principles, I should
expect from the temper and customs of nations, with regard to the
egress of corn, when it is scarce; and particularly from the
existing laws of that country, which, in all common years, will
furnish us with a large proportion of our supplies.

To these causes of temporary fluctuations, during peace, should be
added the more durable as well as temporary, fluctuations occasioned
by war. Without reference to the danger of excessive scarcity from
another combination against us, if we are merely driven back at
certain distant intervals upon our own resources, the experience of
the present times will teach us not to estimate lightly the
convulsion which attends the return, and the evils of such