uncertainty, it is possible to estimate that the induction of cancers would
range from 75 to 300 cases per megaton for each billion people in the
post-test generation.

If we apply these very rough yardsticks to a large-scale nuclear war in
which 10,000 megatons of nuclear force are detonated, the effects on a
world population of 5 billion appear enormous. Allowing for uncertainties
about the dynamics of a possible nuclear war, radiation-induced cancers and
genetic damage together over 30 years are estimated to range from 1.5 to
30 million for the world population as a whole. This would mean one
additional case for every 100 to 3,000 people or about 1/2 percent to
15 percent of the estimated peacetime cancer death rate in developed
countries. As will be seen, moreover, there could be other, less well
understood effects which would drastically increase suffering and death.



ALTERATIONS OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT


A nuclear war would involve such prodigious and concentrated short term
release of high temperature energy that it is necessary to consider a
variety of potential environmental effects.

It is true that the energy of nuclear weapons is dwarfed by many natural
phenomena. A large hurricane may have the power of a million hydrogen
bombs. But the energy release of even the most severe weather is diffuse;
it occurs over wide areas, and the difference in temperature between the
storm system and the surrounding atmosphere is relatively small. Nuclear
detonations are just the opposite--highly concentrated with reaction