the actual conduct of the German submarine warfare against commerce
and its effects upon our own ships and people is substantially the
same that it was when I addressed you on the 3d of February, except
for the tying up of our shipping in our own ports because of the
unwillingness of our ship-owners to risk their vessels at sea without
insurance or adequate protection, and the very serious congestion of
our commerce which has resulted, a congestion which is growing rapidly
more and more serious every day.

This in itself might presently accomplish, in effect, what the new
German submarine orders were meant to accomplish, so far as we are
concerned. We can only say, therefore, that the overt act which I
have ventured to hope the German commanders would in fact avoid has
not occurred.


SPARED BY CIRCUMSTANCES NOT BY INSTRUCTIONS

But while this is happily true, it must be admitted that there have
been certain additional indications and expressions of purpose on the
part of the German press and the German authorities which have
increased rather than lessened the impression that if our ships and
our people are spared it will be because of fortunate circumstances or
because the commanders of the German submarines which they may happen
to encounter exercise an unexpected discretion and restraint, rather
than because of the instructions under which those commanders are
acting.

It would be foolish to deny that the situation is fraught with the
gravest possibilities and dangers. No thoughtful man can fail to see