Prosperity, Panic, and Liquidation, which three constitute themselves
into the business cycle, that for forty years past (that is, since the
present Bank of England Act, and practically since that of the Law
governing the Bank of France, both of which then increased the required
specie reserve) has been of about ten years. These ten years may be
apportioned roughly as follows: say, Prosperity for five to seven years;
Panic a few months to a few years, [Footnote: The panic after 1873 is
the only one I know extending to anything like the length it attained.
This may be ascribed to the immense development and consequent
speculation, and to the inflation of the currency coming after the
period about the Civil War.] and Liquidation about a few years.

I have already pointed out the signs of prosperity, of panic, and of
liquidation, but in view of existing conditions perhaps it may be well
to restate here the quite familiar fact that the completion of
liquidation that precedes the beginning of another period of prosperity
is characterized by lack of business, steady prices, and a marked growth
in available banking funds.

[The various tables spread through this pamphlet are fully explained by
their headings and the text.]

In conclusion I wish to express my thanks for the courtesy M. Juglar
has extended me, and to state my appreciation of the motives,
painstaking patience, and undoubted originality he has shown in
explaining and executing so faithfully and with such genius a most
laborious and yet spirited work. It is only justice that such an
achievement should have been awarded a prize by the French Institute
(Academy of Moral and Political Sciences) and have gained for M. Juglar
the Vice-Presidency of the "Society for the Study of Political Economy."