prudent man but the course which will save him; who is prepared for all
eventualities but the one which happens; and who, when all his abilities
fail to carry him through, exclaims that it was not his fault, but an
extraordinary and unforeseen fatality.

On the death of Pius III, in 1503, Machiavelli was sent to Rome to watch
the election of his successor, and there he saw Cesare Borgia cheated
into allowing the choice of the College to fall on Giuliano delle Rovere
(Julius II), who was one of the cardinals that had most reason to fear
the duke. Machiavelli, when commenting on this election, says that
he who thinks new favours will cause great personages to forget old
injuries deceives himself. Julius did not rest until he had ruined
Cesare.

It was to Julius II that Machiavelli was sent in 1506, when that pontiff
was commencing his enterprise against Bologna; which he brought to a
successful issue, as he did many of his other adventures, owing chiefly
to his impetuous character. It is in reference to Pope Julius that
Machiavelli moralizes on the resemblance between Fortune and women, and
concludes that it is the bold rather than the cautious man that will win
and hold them both.

It is impossible to follow here the varying fortunes of the Italian
states, which in 1507 were controlled by France, Spain, and Germany,
with results that have lasted to our day; we are concerned with those
events, and with the three great actors in them, so far only as they
impinge on the personality of Machiavelli. He had several meetings with
Louis XII of France, and his estimate of that monarch's character has
already been alluded to. Machiavelli has painted Ferdinand of Aragon as
the man who accomplished great things under the cloak of religion, but