1972 dollars).

It should be noted, however, that substantial uncertainty exists in
casualty and property damage estimates because they are based on
experience with only moderate earthquakes in the United States (such
as the 1971 San Fernando earthquake) and experience in other countries
where buildings are generally less resistant to damage. The
uncertainty is so large that the estimated impacts could be off by a
factor of two or three, either too high or too low. Even if these
lowest estimates prevail, however, the assessment about preparedness
and the capability to respond to the disasters discussed in this
report would be substantially unchanged.

Assuming a catastrophic earthquake, a variety of secondary problems
could also be expected. Search and rescue operations--requiring heavy
equipment to move debris--would be needed to free people trapped in
collapsed buildings. It is likely that injuries, particularly those
immediately after the event, could overwhelm medical capabilities,
necessitating a system of allocating medical resources to those who
could be helped the most. Numerous local fires must be expected;
nevertheless, a conflagration such as that which followed the Tokyo
earthquake of 1923, or the San Francisco earthquake of 1906, is
improbable, unless a "Santa Ana type" wind pattern is in effect. Since
the near failure of a dam in the San Fernando, California, earthquake
of 1971 (which was a moderate event), substantial progress has been
made in California to reduce the hazard from dams, in some cases
through reconstruction. For planning purposes, however, experts
believe that the failure of at least one dam should be anticipated
during a catastrophic earthquake in either the Los Angeles or San
Francisco regions.