year. Smaller magnitude--and consequently less damaging--earthquakes
are anticipated with greater frequency on a number of fault systems in
California.

In either of these earthquakes, casualties could surpass the previous
single greatest loss of life in the United States due to a natural
disaster, which was about 6,000 persons killed when a hurricane and
storm surge struck the Galveston area of the Texas coast in 1900. The
highest loss of life due to earthquakes in the United States occurred
in San Francisco in 1906, when 700 people were killed. By way of
comparison (in spite of the vast differences in building design and
practices and socioeconomic systems) the devastating 1976 Tangshan
earthquake in China caused fatalities ranging from the official
Chinese Government figure of 242,000 to unofficial estimates as high
as 700,000. Fortunately, building practices in the United States
preclude such a massive loss of life.

Property losses are expected to be higher than in any past earthquake
in the United States. For example, San Francisco in 1906, and
Anchorage in 1964, were both much less developed than today when they
were hit by earthquakes. And the San Fernando earthquake in 1971, was
only a moderate shock that struck on the fringe of a large urban area.
Each of these three earthquakes caused damage estimated at about $0.5
billion in the then current dollars. Estimates of property damage for
the most probable catastrophic earthquake on the Southern San Andreas
(Richter magnitude 8+) and for the less probable but more damaging one
(Richter magnitude 7.5) on the Newport-Inglewood fault, are about $15
billion and $70 billion respectively. By comparison, tropical storm
Agnes caused the largest economic loss due to a natural disaster in
the United States to date but it amounted to only $3.5 billion (in