Fault ($ in Billions) ($ in Billions) ($ in Billions)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northern San Andreas 25 13 38
Hayward 29 15 44
Newport-Inglewood 45 24 69
Southern San Andreas 11 6 17
----------
[1] Uncertain by a possible factor of two to three.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------


C. CASUALTY ESTIMATES

Deaths and injuries in these earthquakes principally would occur from
failures of man-made structures, particularly older, multistory, and
unreinforced brick masonry buildings built before the institution of
earthquake-resistant building codes. Experience has shown that some
modern multistory buildings--constructed as recently as the late
1960's, but not adequately designed or constructed to meet the current
understanding of requirements for seismic resistance--are also subject
to failure. Consequently, the number of fatalities will be strongly
influenced by the number of persons within high-occupancy buildings,
capable of collapsing, or by failure of other critical facilities such
as dams. Additional imponderables are the degree of saturation of the
ground at the time of the event and the possibility of weather
conditions conducive to the spread of fire. A conflagration such as
occurred in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, is not considered
likely to occur in any of the analyzed events, however, because of
improvements in fire resistance of construction and firefighting
techniques. Nonetheless, numerous smaller fires must be anticipated in