any of the analyzed events and a "Santa Ana type" wind could cause
serious problems.

An additional element of uncertainty in estimating casualties from
earthquake stems from not knowing where most of the population will be
at the time of the earthquake. In the early morning (i.e., 2:30 a.m.)
most people are at home, by far the safest environment during a
seismic emergency. At 2:00 in the afternoon, on the other hand, the
majority of people are at their places of employment and therefore
vulnerable to collapse of office buildings. Around 4:30 p.m. many more
people are in the streets and thus subject to injury due to falling
debris or failures of transportation systems. Consequently, depending
on the time of day, wide variations in the number of casualties can be
expected.

Following are estimates of dead and injured (requiring
hospitalization) for each of the four representative faults and for
the three time periods just discussed.

TABLE 3

ESTIMATES OF CASUALTIES[1]

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Fault Time Dead Hospitalized[2]
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Northern San Andreas 2:30 a.m. 3,000 12,000
2:00 p.m. 10,000 37,000
4:30 p.m. 11,000 44,000