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Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes
page 24 of 698 (03%)
through the difficulty of observing all circumstances, be very fallacious.
But this is certain; by how much one man has more experience of
things past, than another; by so much also he is more Prudent,
and his expectations the seldomer faile him. The Present onely
has a being in Nature; things Past have a being in the Memory onely,
but things To Come have no being at all; the Future being but a
fiction of the mind, applying the sequels of actions Past,
to the actions that are Present; which with most certainty is done
by him that has most Experience; but not with certainty enough.
And though it be called Prudence, when the Event answereth our Expectation;
yet in its own nature, it is but Presumption. For the foresight
of things to come, which is Providence, belongs onely to him
by whose will they are to come. From him onely, and supernaturally,
proceeds Prophecy. The best Prophet naturally is the best guesser;
and the best guesser, he that is most versed and studied in the matters
he guesses at: for he hath most Signes to guesse by.

Signes
A Signe, is the Event Antecedent, of the Consequent; and contrarily,
the Consequent of the Antecedent, when the like Consequences have
been observed, before: And the oftner they have been observed,
the lesse uncertain is the Signe. And therefore he that has most
experience in any kind of businesse, has most Signes, whereby to guesse at
the Future time, and consequently is the most prudent: And so much more
prudent than he that is new in that kind of business, as not to
be equalled by any advantage of naturall and extemporary wit:
though perhaps many young men think the contrary.

Neverthelesse it is not Prudence that distinguisheth man from beast.
There be beasts, that at a year old observe more, and pursue that which
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